Fearless Economic Forecast on the Incoming Aquino Administration
Commentary:
Fearless Economic Forecast on the Incoming Aquino Administration
Carl Ala, a political economist from the University of the Philippines-Manila
Granting that president-apparent Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III will be proclaimed and take his oath as the next head of state of the Philippines in spite of the numerous allegations of electoral fraud, then we may just have an extension of the neo-liberal economic policies of the current regime. It must be noted that Noynoy was also a student of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo who was then teaching Economics in Ateneo de Manila and her top economic adviser Albay Governor Joey Salceda is Noynoy’s classmate.
Now that Salceda is already on Noynoy’s camp and they also have the same economic mentor and moorings then from all indications the Aquino administration will continue to carry out liberalization, privatization, deregulation, curtailment of social rights, reduction of social services and increased taxation at the expense of the people under the policy of free market globalization. As a prominent social scientist said the US, foreign banks and corporations will continue to extract superprofits and plunder the country. The Aquino regime will be grossly incapable of stopping the widening trade and budgetary deficits and the mounting debt burden. The fiscal and sovereign debt crisis will shake the Philippine economy from the base to the rafter and will be used by the foreign banks and corporations to further bend the Philippines.
As for land reform the Hacienda Luisita issue will continue to be very controversial and would serve as the ultimate test for Noynoy’s agrarian reform policy. If in the first 100 days of his presidency he has not ordered the Cojuangco clan to withdraw their case in the Supreme Court contesting the ownership of the 6,453 hectare estate, then the farm workers of the hacienda will have to struggle more fiercely to get their land.
In taxation, Noynoy first said during the campaign that he will not impose taxes during his term when elected but in a span of a few weeks he retracted. But considering he has Sen. Ralph Rector, Sen. Mar Roxas and Joey Salceda the primary proponents of the reformed value added tax (RVAT) then we could expect more taxes particularly the expansion of the RVAT from 12% to 15%.
In employment, Gov. Slaceda estimated that it would immediately add P642 billion in new investments and 642,000 jobs in Aquino’s first 18 months in office. But I beg to disagree and this is extremely exaggerated considering that the country is still reeling from the effects of the global financial crisis and we are now feeling the aftershocks of the European debt crisis. Many are still wondering on the sustainability of US economic recovery and the strengthening of the dollar. Besides all these is the brewing war between North and South Korea so I think that investors would stay clear of East and Southeast Asia for at least 6 months or at least if and when the tensions have subsided and their relations normalized.
Earlier also the outgoing administration moved to eliminate oil import tariffs for all oil players but this will only make matters worse and increase oil prices because this may just serve as a smokescreen so that they can now raise the RVAT.
So it must be seen that the incoming administration has a lot of economic problems to deal with and it will not be smooth sailing for Filipinos, but as things stand I do not think that Noynoy’s economic team can solve these problems without doing something radical. If they stick to the same old formula that Gloria used then we will surely have more headaches. Unless genuine agrarian reform coupled with nationalist industrialization is implemented in our country which I hope that the new administration at least sees as an option, then we will continue to be a laggard economically, politically and culturally. We must wake up and see what we need to solve and remind the incoming commander in chief why he is there. # # #
All your points are valid,I guess, and if we have to rationalize things, your points make sense. I am not a P.Noy fanatic, in fact, I rooted for his cousin, but I believe the most important thing for the moment is the trust people have in him. I believe P.Noy lives in the moment, day to day dealing with his responsibilities, and he may look like making wrong decisions and having connections with people presumed to have connections with anomalies or wrong economic decisions, but I could feel he is on the right track, and I think it is perfectly normal to change stand or decisions if there could be a better one..Even if people are so expert on certain fields,actually it’s all about making the wisest decisions at the moment,learn from mistakes, move on to do what’s best, being flexible at the same time having the political will..Noynoy has a lot of pressing problems to deal with, and we are talking of so many things that he should have dealt with in this way or in that way, notwithstanding the international pressures and events that could directly or indirectly affect us, it’s actually all about personal power, being realistic so that problems can be solved realistically, and of course having personal values against corruption..coz its corruption that’s doing all these crazy things..we may have all the statistics and the numbers to prove our point, but we can’t judge noynoy’s performance with his past connections and learnings..
Yup, let’s just hope that he does deliver on his promises because if not then we will get in a lot more trouble than we are already in now. Let me also point out that corruption is indeed a problem of our country but it is not the most pressing one. It is still landlessness, where 7 out of 10 peasants do not own the land they till, this is worsened by neo-liberal economic policies and compounded by corruption.
really? why not call it fearless hopeless forecast, for crying out loud. Hope is essential for every LIVING human being. Get a life!
Let’s just wait and see. Of course anyone can hope for something better but one also has to base hope on facts and track record.
Yes, our country indeed faces a lot of problems and we have different views on what is the most pressing ones, but the main point is if these problems are confronted full hardily without analyzing their root causes then they will only fester and even get worse. Based on Noynoy’s track record and the people around him though this is where he is headed and we are the ones who are going to pay for it.
I also came from UP but I think you are already negative at the onset about his ability to deliver on his promises. I hope you will be proved wrong. Most of our people hope for the best about this country (in which you also belong) after he was given the clear mandate to be President. We all know Noynoy cannot solve this country’s pressing problems(from overpopulation to economic problems) in the first 100 days of his administration but if he can reduce corruption I will be happy already. Transparency will attract foreign investments will translate into jobs and economic growth which means more money to spend on social services and infrastructure..Corruption I would think is the most pressing problem of our country and agrarian reform as not the most pressing one but I think Noynoy can deliver on his agrarian reform agenda but this will take time. Let us contribute positively on this country’s future so that we will not always be left behind by our southeast Asian neighbors. Philippines is a part of a world economy in which we should try to compete at our level best not espouse self destructive ideologies in which other countries have relinquished already.Let us be part of the solution and not contribute more to this country’s burdens.
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